The MacroTourist...Kevin Muir

I am a private investor who used to work for a big Canadian bank as a derivative index trader. I have been writing a journal for myself for many years. From time to time I have shared these posts with colleagues and friends. Many have encouraged me to write on a more regular basis and to allow others to read it. So, this journal is a response to these suggestions.

Tailwinds Research is honored to be able to share content from The MacroTourist, whose work we deeply respect. To learn more about The MacroTourist, and the companies he covers, please visit www.themacrotourist.com. To see his disclaimer, please click here.

The Most Dangerous Setup

By necessity, today’s topic will venture into the world of politics, so I warn you now - you might be offended. Actually, I have...

IGNORE THE “DRUCK IS BEARISH HEADLINES”

When I first cracked open Market Wizards by Jack Schwager as a pimply-faced teenager, I was mesmerized. Here were all these traders revealing the...

Emerging Market Contagion

Wild day in the markets. Emerging markets are getting crushed like a 1980s teenage nerd asking the head cheerleader to prom. As I write...

I HEAR 1987 NEW WAVE IS BACK

I don’t know about you, but I’m worried. The economic cycle is long in the tooth. Equity valuations are stretched. The yield curve is...

BUYBACK TOP OR JUST NEEDLESS WORRY?

You had to know that last week’s Barron’s cover was too good for me to pass up. Come’ on. It’s just screaming at me...

PEAK S&P 500 P/E MULTIPLE?

Let’s talk earnings for a bit. Specifically, how the 2017 tax cut affected S&P 500 earnings. We all know the story. America’s corporate tax rate...

Trade Wars Are Good and Easy To Win

It was about a month ago that President Trump first warned us. Having finally figured out he had considerable power to affect trade policy,...

THAT’S NOT A BOND BEAR MARKET

What a true bond bear market looks like A couple of years ago I remember having a discussion with a hedge fund manager. I told...

Taking the Over on Both Inflation and Growth

Well it’s happening. It might be subtle. You might not be able to point to X causing Y, but make no mistake - the...

Better Places to Sell

I am a big huge Kodiak grizzly of a bond bear. It’s probably my number one conviction call. I believe, over time, long rates...

Tax Reform Rotation

I have often said that as traders, it is not our job to pass judgment on what should be, but, instead, to take advantage of what is. I...

Grandma’s Bond Portfolio Is In Trouble

Today’s post is an important one. I might have put Grandma in the trunk, but the coming struggle between generations is no laughing matter....

GPIF Is About To Bite Back

A few years ago, the Japanese government made an announcement that went unnoticed by many market pundits. Since then, although there have been a...

FANG Futures

The other day, after reading one of my posts, my old boss sent me a note. It was a comment about the madness of...

China’s Minsky Moment

Sometimes you have to love the naivety of the markets. At this week’s Communist Party Congress meeting in Beijing, the governor of the PBoC...

Good Thing Jessie Isn’t Around to See This

Think back six months. Do you remember all the warnings from the legendary hedge fund managers about the impending stock market doom? Paul Tudor...

Oh Canada: An Economic Experiment

It seems like the only time Canada makes the news is when America elects some right wing President the Hollywood elite don’t like, and...

The Most Important Paper of the Next Decade

Whenever I tell people the next big crisis will come from inflation, not deflation, the looks of disgust are worse than when someone says...

Sell US – Buy Japan?

With the gong show occurring in Washington, it’s amazing anyone has the courage to write a blue ticket for any American assets. But we...

Yellen Trying To Ride Into The Sunset

Bernanke presided over the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Greenspan had the 1987 crash, along with the 2000 DotCom bust. Volcker had the bond...

There Is No Such Thing As A Bad Tick

It’s one of those periods when everything is conspiring against precious metals. For those of the bullish persuasion, this can be a difficult time....

Grantham Commits The Cardinal Sin

Way back in the 4th quarter of 2015, GMO’s Jeremy Grantham wrote a piece titled “Part II: 2015 and 2016, U.S. Equity Bubble Update,...

The Most Un-Fun Bubble Ever

The other day in the midst of an epic food-fight-rally in the stock market, a younger kid from my office wandered by and expressed...

HAS ‘FADE THE TRUMP TRADE’ ENDED?

Remember last month when everyone was hot and bothered about all the TRUMP trades? Whether it was long Russell 2000 futures, short bonds, long...

Janet’s Bullshit

  Well that just shows you how hard this game is. My forecast that Janet would err on being more hawkish than the market expected...

THE WORLD’S BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE

I am about to articulate an argument so contrary to popular wisdom that most of you will simply shake your head and proclaim, “Macrotourist...

THE FED HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW TO RAISE RATES

By now you have all heard of the looming “US dollar shortage.” We all know the stories about the massive emerging markets US dollar...

The Three New “For Sure” Trades

Over the past couple of weeks three new “for sure” investment themes have emerged. Stocks will rise, bonds will go down, and the US...

Lighting The Fire That Could Never Be Lit

I thought the bond market would bounce yesterday. Sentiment was terrible, the month end rebalancing effect meant pension funds and other multi-asset managers would...

Some Short Term Bumps

This morning the bond carnage/stock melt up continues in earnest. Although I try to focus on longer term themes, I can’t help but comment...

GOLD ARE YOU STILL THERE?

The surprise Trump win has weighed heavily on the gold market. Since the initial knee jerk move higher, the gold chart has resembled a...