Wild day in the markets. Emerging markets are getting crushed like a 1980s teenage nerd asking the head cheerleader to prom. As I write this, the EEM ETF is down roughly 3% on the day, and down more than...
I don’t know about you, but I’m worried. The economic cycle is long in the tooth. Equity valuations are stretched. The yield curve is flattening. Emerging markets and other liquidity-sensitive markets are sagging. The Federal Reserve is raising rates...
You had to know that last week’s Barron’s cover was too good for me to pass up. Come’ on. It’s just screaming at me to write a post. It’s like Lindsay Lohan attending a celebrity vodka launch event - you...
Let’s talk earnings for a bit. Specifically, how the 2017 tax cut affected S&P 500 earnings. We all know the story. America’s corporate tax rate was uncompetitive and created distortions in the economy that prevented companies from investing in the...
It was about a month ago that President Trump first warned us. Having finally figured out he had considerable power to affect trade policy, Trump went on the offensive. As I always promise, I will leave politics aside and refrain...
What a true bond bear market looks like A couple of years ago I remember having a discussion with a hedge fund manager. I told him about my theory that the next big surprise would be higher bond rates, not...
Well it’s happening. It might be subtle. You might not be able to point to X causing Y, but make no mistake - the Federal Reserve is still run by humans, and those humans want to appease the boss....
I am a big huge Kodiak grizzly of a bond bear. It’s probably my number one conviction call. I believe, over time, long rates throughout the world will go higher - a lot of higher.Yet the trader in me...
I have often said that as traders, it is not our job to pass judgment on what should be, but, instead, to take advantage of what is. I will try to stick to that mantra when discussing the US tax “reform” package, but...
Today’s post is an important one. I might have put Grandma in the trunk, but the coming struggle between generations is no laughing matter. It very well might end up being the defining theme for financial markets in coming...