Friday, May 26, 2017

The MacroTourist...Kevin Muir

I am a private investor who used to work for a big Canadian bank as a derivative index trader. I have been writing a journal for myself for many years. From time to time I have shared these posts with colleagues and friends. Many have encouraged me to write on a more regular basis and to allow others to read it. So, this journal is a response to these suggestions.

Tailwinds Research is honored to be able to share content from The MacroTourist, whose work we deeply respect. To learn more about The MacroTourist, and the companies he covers, please visit www.themacrotourist.com. To see his disclaimer, please click here.

A Contrarian Idea About Deficits

Imagine you are running a small business. Although sales are slowly growing, competition is driving down your margins. Your employees are getting squeezed by rising...

Romance Is For Losers

A few readers have asked me to tell more stories about trading. They encouraged me to share more of my experiences throughout the years. After...

Stock Market Shakeout

The risk off move continues this morning. Although most pundits are attributing the sudden decline to Trump’s Comey woes, it feels like there is...

An E.T.A. For The Man With The Pin

Everyone is aware of the manic rise in the price of real estate in countries such as Canada and Australia over the past few...

The VIX Article No One Will Like

I am pretty sure no one will like today’s post. Half of my readers will be disappointed by the discussion of VIX product intricacies,...

Wallace Prepares to Buy Some Silver

Something is happening in China. Industrial commodities are plunging. It’s been a brutal week, and seems to be accelerating. Too many traders underestimate China’s role...

The Best Unknown Indicator

Lately there has been all sorts of chatter about the collapse of Chinese Iron Ore prices. There can be no denying, the chart looks...

The End Game

We all know the terrifying debt statistics. We are bombarded every day with bearish reports about the gargantuan Federal debt, and when combined with...

Grantham Commits The Cardinal Sin

Way back in the 4th quarter of 2015, GMO’s Jeremy Grantham wrote a piece titled “Part II: 2015 and 2016, U.S. Equity Bubble Update,...

The End of Calm Bond Markets

Although the market is convinced the Federal Reserve will get aggressive with their rate hikes, I am not sure market participants have thought this...

The Most Un-Fun Bubble Ever

The other day in the midst of an epic food-fight-rally in the stock market, a younger kid from my office wandered by and expressed...

I Forgot What We Are Dealing With

The other day I wrote a piece highlighting the dangers about Trump’s over promising regarding the upcoming tax cuts. I argued the best CEOs...

Trump’s Rookie Mistake

The last couple of weeks have been wild. Egged on by Trump’s talk of “yuuugeeee” tax cuts, the stock market has propelled upwards in...

HAS ‘FADE THE TRUMP TRADE’ ENDED?

Remember last month when everyone was hot and bothered about all the TRUMP trades? Whether it was long Russell 2000 futures, short bonds, long...

Aw Right, Aw Right, Aw Right

The other day I wrote a piece that highlighted the risks from an increasingly hawkish Fed (Trump and Yellen’s collision course). One of my...

Another Market Priced for Trump Perfection

Remember last year at this time when WTI crude oil had fallen from $60 down to $26? Instead of scooping up the cheap oil,...

Trump and Yellen’s Collision Course

Although the stock market is giddy from President Trump’s pro-growth policies, there is another constituent not quite so enamoured with recent developments. Although a...

The Mirror Opposite

There are market moments seared into my brain. While most days and weeks blend into an ugly boring collage of flickering numbers on the...

Ignore At Your Peril

They’re at it again. It isn’t enough that the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policies are hamstringing global economic growth, but over the past week...

Trump Trade Has Disaster Written All Over It…

It is easy to forget, but there was a time when Trump’s victory was predicted to spell disaster for markets. And it’s not like...

The Best Trade On The Board

The world’s oldest bank is in the process of negotiating a recapitalization. The market is concerned investors will balk at the proposed plan and...

THE MOST HATED ASSET ON THE PLANET

Last year at this time markets were grappling with the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade. Although many optimists were confident the...

Janet’s Bullshit

  Well that just shows you how hard this game is. My forecast that Janet would err on being more hawkish than the market expected...

Gamma Runs Both Ways…

Word on the street is that there is $5 billion dollars of short stock market gamma up here at these lofty levels. For those...

SWAPPING INTO EMERGING MARKETS

The insane scramble into US risk assets continues unabated this morning. Shorts have had their face ripped off, and we seem to be getting closer...

THE WORLD’S BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE

I am about to articulate an argument so contrary to popular wisdom that most of you will simply shake your head and proclaim, “Macrotourist...

THE FED HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW TO RAISE RATES

By now you have all heard of the looming “US dollar shortage.” We all know the stories about the massive emerging markets US dollar...

The Three New “For Sure” Trades

Over the past couple of weeks three new “for sure” investment themes have emerged. Stocks will rise, bonds will go down, and the US...

Lighting The Fire That Could Never Be Lit

I thought the bond market would bounce yesterday. Sentiment was terrible, the month end rebalancing effect meant pension funds and other multi-asset managers would...

Some Short Term Bumps

This morning the bond carnage/stock melt up continues in earnest. Although I try to focus on longer term themes, I can’t help but comment...

GOLD ARE YOU STILL THERE?

The surprise Trump win has weighed heavily on the gold market. Since the initial knee jerk move higher, the gold chart has resembled a...
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