The ORD Oracle, September 5, 2017

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59.
Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Neutral
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.

We get most charts and information form Stockcharts.com.  Stockcharts.com site has been down since 1:00 Eastern and are unable to post relative charts to today’s report. The chart above is from last Thursday report and still relevant today along with Thursday’s commentary, which is the following.  “On August 10 the McClellan Oscillator closed at -246.  After a rally in the SPY the First -200 McClellan Oscillator reading or less, suggests a corrective pattern in the market is about to begin.  The chart above goes back near two years and shows the times when the McClellan oscillator reached-200 or lower.  Most corrective patterns after a -200 McClellan Oscillator reading last around two months suggesting the current corrective pattern could run into October.” Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59.

We where able to obtain information this morning when Stockcharts.com was up.  The Equity put/Call ratio on Friday’s close came in at .56 which put the three day average at .57 and still in the bearish level for the market.  The chart above is from last Thursday’s report which showed the “3 day average of the Equity Put/Call” at .58.  The information in our report on Thursday is still relevant, which we said,  “The We have had an upside target near 2470 SPX range over the last week and that target was hit today, we did go short yesterday trying to get as close to the 2470 as possible .  The picture remains bearish because of the McClellan Oscillator hitting below -200 on August 10.  We have been saying the patterning forming on the SPY is the same pattern that formed back at the November December 2015 top and that may still hold true. Another possible pattern that could be forming is a “Three Drives to Top” pattern which would require a new high and complete the third and final high.  This pattern requires high volume off its second top (which was present) and one of the reasons the current SPY pattern could be a “Three Drives to Top”.  Either pattern is bearish and still expects a worthwhile pullback that could extend into October.   If the “Three Drives to top” is the pattern than a minimum pull back near 2400 level, if the “November December 2015 top” pattern is correct the pattern than expect something lower than 2400.  The top window on the chart above is the 3 period moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio.  Readings near .57 and lower have come near short term tops in the market and today’s close is .58.”  Most likely Stockcharts.com will be up tomorrow and we will have current charts and information.

The last Commitment of Traders report showed the Commercials traders where 248K short gold contracts.  Usually 200K short for Commercials have been a short term bearish sign.  Both GDX and Gold continued their rally day.  A full moon is September 6 (tomorrow) and in the past can mark reversals in the gold market.  We are staying neutral for now but the indicators suggest a short term high is near by.  The chart above and commentary is from last Thursday and still have meaning, “This chart looks at the internal strength or weakness in GDX. The bottom window is the Cumulative up down volume % which as made lower highs as GDX made higher highs and not showing strength suggesting the GDX rally could fail.  Next window up is the Cumulative advance/Decline % which is also making lower highs as GDX has made higher highs showing that few stocks are carrying the GDX rally, which is a weak sign.  Unless the Cumulative up down volume % and Cumulative Advance/Decline % start to show strength soon, most likely the current GDX rally will fail.   The longer term patterns are bullish but the shorter term patterns are not ideal. Still neutral for now.

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