The ORD Oracle, July 24, 2017

SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered short on 7/6 at 2409.75=gain 1.2%; Short SPX 6/26/17 at 2439.07.
Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Neutral
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.

Five of the last six instances since January 2017, when the three period moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio reached .56 and below, produced a sideways to down market that lasted a week or longer.   The FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and runs into Wednesday.  With the Equity Put/Call ratio running at bearish levels, the FOMC meeting may represent a topping pattern. Covered SPX short for gain of 1.2%.  follow us are twitter. @OrdOracle.

The FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and can produce reversals in the market.  The middle window in the chart above is the VIX/SPY ratio. A bearish sign is created when the VIX/SPY ratio makes higher lows as the SPY makes higher highs (Pointed out in red).  Recently over the last several days the SPY has made higher highs as the VIX/SPY ratio made lower lows suggesting a short term bounce in the SPY is possible.  If market does bounce before and during the FOMC meetings, a potential topping pattern could develop.

Its common for the GDX/GLD ratio to lead GDX.  Last Friday, GDX made a higher high and GDX/GLD ratio made a lower high suggesting GDX was near a high (which is was).  Today GDX/GLD ratio closed below the July 13 low suggesting that GDX will close below its July 13 low which comes in at 21.48 which is another ½ point lower form here and our short term downside target for now.  We are bullish on the bigger timeframes and the next low could lead to a longer term buy signal. The COT report for June 26 showed the Commercials at 150K short (bearish); for July 7, 107K Short (on bullish side of neutral), July 14 came in at 73K short; July 21 at 74K short; both of which are bullish. The commercials (smart money) think a bottom is close at hand for Gold. We are staying neutral for now.

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