The ORD Oracle, April 4, 2017

SPX Monitoring purposes;  Long SPX on 3/24/17 at 2343.98.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold GDX at 24.33 on 2/22/07 = gain 20.15%; Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.

March 1 appears to have been a Buying Climax as volume jumped near 50% compared to volume days leading up to March 1.  High Volume day’s highs are usually tested and if tested on light volume would imply resistance.  The March 1 high came in near 240 range (SPX 2400 range) and may develop into a resistance area if tested on light volume.  For now the 240 range is our upside target and we will see what happens to volume if and when that area is tested.  What may be developing here is a large consolidation and a pull back to 228 range on the SPY is still possible after a potential test of the March 1 high. Today the SPY was modestly down and the VIX is near unchanged at a short term bullish divergence.

The index put/call ratio reached 1.59 on Friday and hit the upper Bollinger band (blue horizontal lines) usually indicated market was near a low.   Also the Total Put/Call ratio reached near its upper Bollinger Band also (not shown) adding to the bullish sign.   The top window is the McClellan Oscillator and readings above “0” are a bullish sign for the market.  Today’s close came in at +69.27.  A possible upside target is the March 1 high on the SPX near 2400.98.  Long SPX on 3/24/17 at 2343.98.

So far the GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and GDX/GLD ratio normally leads the way for GDX and one of the reason GDX may pull back short term.  The bottom window is the On Balance Volume for the GDX/GLD ratio which is showing GDX/GLD ratio is in a weak position and may pull back more.  The top window is the RSI for the GDX/GLD ratio.  When the RSI is > 50 it suggests GDX/GLD ratio is in an uptrend and < 50 a downtrend.    Most top form when the RSI reaches the 50 range and turns down.  Currently the RSI is near 50 and a push through 50 will be a bullish sign and a failure will be a bearish sign.  Today’s GDX/GLD chart still has a bearish slant. The monthly charts for GDX remains bullish.  Timer Digest has us ranked #1 in performance for gold over the last 12 months.  Sold GDX at 24.33 on 2/22/17 = gain 20.15%; Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.