The Ord Oracle, April 24, 2017

SPX Monitoring purposes;  Long SPX on 4/24/17 & 2374.15.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Neutral
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.

SPY did show a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) through the Neckline of a head and Shoulders bottom confirming the pattern.  This Head and Shoulders bottom has a measured target (you guessed it) the March 1 high near 2400 on the SPX.   There are two paths to the 2400 level, either the market rally continues or test the “Neckline” first before heading higher.  Either way should at least get to the March 1 high near 2400.  If the potential test of the March 1 high comes on higher volume than March 1 Volume the rally would be expected to continue higher.   Long SPX on 4/24/17 at 2374.15.

Above is a sentiment chart that looks at the bigger picture; which is the AAII Bull/AAII Bear ratio with a four period moving average.  When this ratio is below .75 (current reading is .70) the market is near an intermediate term low.  The red vertical lines show when this ratio reached below .70.  Might add that April is near the top of performance months averaging 2%.  Buying Climax of March 1 near 2400 on the SPX to be tested at some point.

The GDX/GLD ratio leads the way for GDX.   Notice that GDX/GLD ratio has dropped to its late March low, suggesting GDX is heading to its late March low near 22.50.  Its to soon to say that will be the final low, will have to wait and see what goes on at that level.  The RSI for the GDX/GLD ratio fell below 50 on April 18 and remains below 50, suggesting the GDX/GLD ratio is still in a downtrend.  If GDX/GLD ratio is in a down trend, than GDX also should be weak as GDX/GLD ratio leads the way for GDX.  As long as the RSI for the GDX/GLD ratio is below 50 than GDX should work lower.  For the next low in GDX, the GDX/GLD ratio should show signs of a bullish divergence where GDX is weaker than GDX/GLD ratio. Another clue a GDX bottom is nearing is for GLD weaker than GDX.  For now a possible target for GDX is the late March low near 22.50.  It that doesn’t hold, next target down would be the early March low near 21.00.  For now we will be patience and wait for the next bullish setup.