The ORD Oracle, 1-23-17

SPX Monitoring purposes;  Covered 12/30/16 at 2238.83= gain .46%; Short on 12/29/16 at 2249.26.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes:  Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28

Today the TRIN closed at 1.77 and the Ticks at +193, which suggests a move in the market is coming, but does not give the direction. If however the tick closed at -193 instead of +193, that condition would give a clear buy signal. We have been watching the Dow Jones Industrials and its hovering right below the 20K level and not backing away. If DJI won’t back away, it then most likely will at some point push through the 20K level.  If indeed the DJI pushes above the 20K level, which may spark media attention and produce a news event. From our experience News events can produce reversals in the market. In a nutshell, short term pop up to a top that may be worthy of a sell signal. Covered 12/30/16 at 2238.83 = gain .46%; Short on 12/29/16 at 2249.26.

The second up from the bottom is the TRIN/VIX ratio with a 3 period moving average.  This ratio drops below .05 when a bottom is near by.  We have circled in red on the chart above the previous times when this ratio dropped below .05.  Not saying that market cannot bounce from here, it can, but our indicators are not giving a high probability that a bounce will occur from here.  Staying neutral for now.

Here is a long term monthly gold chart. The top window is the monthly RSI for gold. Bullish trends in gold can be found when the monthly RSI close and stays above the 50. A bullish signal is triggered when the monthly RSI closes above 50 which happen in January 2016.  Gold has been in a consolidation since August and the monthly RSI appears to be turning up again suggesting another rally is starting. The red vertical lines show when the Eight year cycle low is due and the last red vertical line came in October 2016.  Since this is such a long cycle, a couple of months on either side of this red vertical line would imply “on time”. The Gold low came in December and on time. The monthly XAU/Gold ratio (third window up from bottom) is in a bullish trend when trending up. The monthly XAU/Gold ratio closed above its 20 period moving average (MA) back in January 2016 and triggered a bullish signal. Both the monthly RSI and XAU/Gold ratio remains on bullish signals suggesting the long term trend is up. We expecting at some point Gold will hit a new high on the current bull signal. Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.